It is natural to expect an economic rebound in FY 2021-22. But it is vital to take a pragmatic view based on an objective assessment of how the situation unfolds on ground zero The green shoots seen in October, in particular the rise in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) by 3.6 per cent, have prompted agencies to revise their growth assessment for the current financial year (FY) from the minus 9.5-10.5 per cent projected earlier to minus 7.5-8.5 per cent, now. For the FY 2021-22, when the impact of the virus is expected to subside to a large extent due to the availability of the vaccine, it is only natural to expect an economic rebound. However, it is necessary...
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Category: Growth & employment
On road to recovery
The growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had already started sliding from the third quarter of FY 2018-19 and continued all through the FY 2019-20 culminating in a low of 3% during its last quarter ending March 31, 2020. During the whole of 2019-20, the growth plummeted to a decade low of 4.2% down from an average of 7.5% recorded in the previous 5 years i.e. 2014-15 to 2018-19. A nation-wide lockdown announced by the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi on March 24, 2020 dwelt a body blow by bringing most of the economic activities to a grinding halt. As a result, there was precipitous decline in GDP growth by 24% during the first quarter of current FY ending June...
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Checks and balances
Crony capitalism has also happened in public sector banks. There is a dire need to strengthen regulatory oversight to guard against irregularities in running all banks The recommendation of an Internal Working Group (IWG) set up by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to allow industrial houses to own banks — if they meet the criterion — has invited strident criticism from experts, including the former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Asking how a borrower could also be a lender, they have debunked the idea, stating that this would lead to misdirected lending, mostly to entities belonging to the industrial house that owns the bank. This apprehension is valid but the misuse of public money can happen in any bank, irrespective of the...
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Banking reforms – can borrower also be a lender
An Internal Working Group (IWG) set up by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has made far reaching recommendations in regard to ownership guidelines and governance structures of private sector banks. These include inter alia (i) allowing their promoters hold 26% equity stake in steady state or after 15 years (up from existing norm of 15%) from the start when it should be a minimum of 40% of the equity for the first five years; (ii) take a sympathetic review of whether industrial houses should be allowed to own banks if they meet the fit and proper criterion; (iii) allow non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) with assets of > Rs 50,000 crore, and in operation for over 10 years, to convert...
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Nix priority sector lending
The policy — a legacy of the socialist era — has led to blatant misuse and misappropriation of funds and is far from helping those for whom it is intended On September 4, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced changes in the norms for priority sector lending (PSL) with the stated objective of “enabling better credit penetration to credit-deficient areas, increase in lending to small and marginal farmers and boosting credit to renewable energy and health infrastructure.” Under PSL, the RBI mandates a certain percentage of a bank’s lendable resources to specified areas. The policy — a legacy of the socialist era — has led to blatant misuse and misappropriation of funds and is far from helping the most vulnerable groups...
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Stay within limits
If the FD range gets embedded in the FRBM Act, it will give sanction to slippages. It will defeat the purpose of fixing a target, which is to obligate the Govt to keep expenses in check The Finance Ministry is building pressure on the 15th Finance Commission (15th FC) to allow greater flexibility while fixing the fiscal deficit (FD). It wants to adopt a flexible, range-bound FD target instead of a fixed number. With this aim in mind, the Modi Government is reviewing the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act. The issue was discussed at the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) of the 15th FC, wherein the chairman, NK Singh, cited a similar practice followed by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)...
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Fiscal deficit – Shun range-bound target
Modi – government is reviewing the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act in the light of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and adopt a flexible, range-bound fiscal deficit (FD) target instead of a fixed number. The issue was discussed at the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) of the 15th Finance Commission (XVFC) on September 4, 2020, wherein the chairman, NK Singh cited similar practice followed by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) with +/- 2% inflation target while deciding its monetary policy. The immediate prompt for this is sharp contraction in GDP (gross domestic product) by about 24% in the first quarter of current financial year and corresponding steep reduction in tax collections even as the expenditure...
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A step in the right direction
It is good that the RBI has kept the repo and reverse repo rates unchanged or else in the current economic scenario any further cut would have been infructuous In the last bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) review announced by its Governor Shaktikanta Das on August 6, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had kept the policy repo rate unchanged at four per cent. It had also kept the reverse repo rate or the interest rate the banks get on their surplus funds parked with the RBI unchanged at 3.35 per cent. It continued with the “accommodative” stance of the monetary policy as long as necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of Covid-19, while ensuring that inflation remains within the...
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Monetary stimulus – does it matter
In the last bi-monthly monetary policy review announced by the Governor, Shaktikanta Das on August 6, 2020, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had kept the policy repo rate — the interest rate charged by the RBI on loans it gives to banks — unchanged at 4%. It had also kept the reverse repo rate or the interest rate the banks get on their surplus funds parked with the RBI unchanged at 3.35%. It also continued with the “accommodative” stance of the monetary policy as long as necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of Covid-19, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target. In the build-up to the next bi-monthly review (originally scheduled for October 1, 2020, this...
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A mixed bag
The labour law reforms are being bandied about as the most crucial second generation amendments that will make it easier to do business but must not compromise workers The Narendra Modi Government recently passed three Bills on labour reforms enshrined in three labour codes, namely The Industrial Relations Code, 2020, The Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020 and The Code on Social Security, 2020. Along with The Code on Wages, 2019, passed by the Parliament last year, these four labour law reforms are being bandied about as the most crucial second generation amendments that will make it easier to do business, improve the competitiveness of the Indian industry, make it a manufacturing hub and pursue the “Make in...
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