For the fifth time in succession, RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan has dashed hopes of industry and commerce for a reduction in repo rate (rate at which banks borrow from RBI) which has been maintained at 8%. Likewise, reverse repo (rate at which banks lend to RBI) is kept at 7%. Cash reserve ratio (CRR) (share of deposits that banks need to keep with RBI) is also un-changed at 4%. RBI benchmarks the repo rate – or policy rate as it is customarily called in the mint street – to inflation. If inflation is high, repo rate is kept high and vice versa. Prior to September, 2013 (when Rajan took charge), whole sale price index (WPI) was taken as reference point...
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Modi’s 3 D mantra for inclusive development
Among foremost economic reasons for disastrous performance of erstwhile UPA led by Congress in the general elections (May, 2014) was the dismal employment scenario. Price rise and slump in growth were other key factors. This led to huge disenchantment among youth who vented their anger against then ruling UPA dispensation. They also gave an overwhelming mandate to Modi who promised them jobs through his mantra of inclusive development. During the last decade (2004-2014) of UPA rule, employment increased by a meager 15 million which is one-fourth of an increase of 60 million during the 6 year stint of NDA (1998-2004) led by charismatic Vajpayee. Ironically, manufacturing sector – long perceived as the harbinger of employment – is languishing at just...
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India’s power sector on the ‘brink’
Power supply to industries, businesses, agriculture, households etc is akin to blood circulation in the body. Just as stoppage of blood supply to any body-part renders it dysfunctional, disruption in power supply has same effect on economic activity. Minister for power and non-conventional energy, Piyush Goyal had precisely this at the back of his mind when he promised that Modi government will ensure un-interrupted power supply 24 hrs a day through out the year to every household and industry. To achieve this goal in an environment friendly manner, government has declared its intent to set up in next 5 years 100,000 mw each of power generation capacity based on ‘solar’ and ‘wind’. This coincides with Modi’s visit to USA where...
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RBI’s ‘back foot’ play – wholly unwarranted
In 2014, there has been an unprecedented surge in investment by foreign institutional investors (FII) with a total of over US$ 20 billion having already come in during January-June. But, RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has sounded a note of caution advising government to be circumspect in spending money. Rajan’s warning is based on the premise that ‘FIIs who bring in money can also take it back’. He observed that apart from continuing wind down of QE (quantitative easing), US Federal Reserve may also increase interest rates triggering reverse flow of funds. As custodian of balance of payments (BoP), governor’s caution is understandable. However, to aver that there could be flight of capital is bit of an exaggeration! This may even...
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Empowering poor vide PM Jan Dhan Yojna
In India, tens of thousands of farmers commit suicide every year. An overarching cause in majority of the cases is they are heavily indebted and inability to pay back to money lender forces them to the extreme step as they can’t bear consequential torture and exploitation. The agony is palpating in instances whereby even a small loan taken by farmer or a landless laborer from money lender gets transformed in to mountain of debt as interest charged by latter is exorbitant – 4-5 times higher than what the banks charge. At another level, consider a woman at home who struggles hard to keep her earnings safe even as her die-hard alcoholic husband looks for every possible opportunity to pounce. Eventually,...
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Coal thieves chanting growth mantra
On August 25, 2014, the Supreme Court (SC) pronounced 194 coal blocks allocated since 1993 ‘illegal’ as all these allocations suffered from what it described as ‘vice of arbitrariness’ and showed no concern what so ever for public/national interest. The judgement vindicates findings of Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). In its report (August, 2012), CAG had estimated loss due to such arbitrary allocations made during 2006-2011 to be Rs 186,000 crores or US$ 31 billion (based on price at which coal is sold by CIL). This would be many times more if computation is done using price of imported coal. At another level, the judgement has created consternation among beneficiaries of illegal allotments. They are crying horse if these allocations...
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Time to say ‘good bye’ to subsidies
One of the planks on which Modi got mandate to govern was his promise to deliver on fiscal consolidation. In its maiden budget for 2014-15, government has pledged to achieve this by pruning subsidies and higher tax revenue based on lower rates. Recently, prime minister approved constitution of an expenditure management commission (EMC) under chairmanship of Dr Bimal Jalan former governor RBI to recommend a road-map up for rationalizing and phasing out major subsidies viz., food, fertilizers and oil. The commission has been asked to submit its report within 18 months. However, it will submit an interim report in 6 months. The protracted time frame for the committee should not be taken to mean any dilution of government’s commitment on this crucial reform....
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Modi’s prescription for economic resurgence
Critics have derided prime minister N Modi for absence of any major initiative or scheme for nation building in his independence day address on August 15, 2014. Some congress leaders even opined ‘he was giving an election speech’! With a pre-meditated and prejudiced mindset, they won’t be able to see any. One only needs to make an objective assessment to get to the bottom of what he gave to 1.25 billion country men and even to fellow citizens in our neighbour and beyond. Modi’s extempore speech covering a wide spectrum left no one in doubt that he gave us a recipe for social, cultural, economic and industrial, renaissance. This is eloquently captured in a couple of phrases that he coined...
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National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) – a big leap to stem rot in judiciary
Lok Sabha has passed the landmark National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) bill. After its passage in Rajya Sabha – likely in view of support from parties across the spectrum – its enactment in to law is a foregone conclusion. NJAC will replace the extant collegium system whereby a group of senior most judges of the Supreme Court (SC) under chairmanship of Chief Justice of India (CJI) recommend appointment of judges of high courts and their chief justices as also the judges of SC. Government of India (GoI) makes appointments on the basis of recommendations of collegium. The former can at best send back recommendation for re-consideration. But, when collegium reiterates its initial choice, GoI has no option but to fall...
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Food, fertilizers and fuel – need ‘overhaul’, not just re-routing of subsidy
In its maiden budget presented on July 10, 2014, NDA-government has announced setting up of an expenditure reforms commission (ERC) that will examine all subsidies viz., food, fuel, fertilizers and come up with a road map for restructuring them. Further castigating existing dispensation as one that does not target beneficiaries (read poor) and leads to ever rising ‘un-quantifiable’ subsidies, it has promised to switch over to a scheme of direct cash transfer (DCT) to poor in a focused and transparent manner. Since then, it is close to a month and ERC has not been constituted as yet. At this pace, we can’t expect its recommendations before end of current year. Therefore, any major restructuring may have to wait at least...
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